Excessive supraventricular ectopic activity and increased risk of atrial fibrillation and stroke.

BACKGROUND Prediction of stroke and atrial fibrillation in healthy individuals is challenging. We examined whether excessive supraventricular ectopic activity (ESVEA) correlates with risk of stroke, death, and atrial fibrillation in subjects without previous stroke or heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS The population-based cohort of the Copenhagen Holter Study, consisting of 678 healthy men and women aged between 55 and 75 years with no history of cardiovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, or stroke, was evaluated. All had fasting laboratory tests and 48-hour ambulatory ECG monitoring. ESVEA was defined as >or=30 supraventricular ectopic complexes (SVEC) per hour or as any episodes with runs of >or=20 SVEC. The primary end point was stroke or death, and the secondary end points were total mortality, stroke, and admissions for atrial fibrillation. Median follow-up was 6.3 years. Seventy subjects had SVEC>or=30/h, and 42 had runs of SVEC with a length of >or=20 SVEC. Together, 99 subjects (14.6%) had ESVEA. The risk of primary end point (death or stroke) was significantly higher in subjects with ESVEA compared with those without ESVEA after adjustment for conventional risk factors (hazard ratio=1.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 2.60; P=0.036). ESVEA was also associated with admissions for atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio=2.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.08 to 6.99; P=0.033) and stroke (hazard ratio=2.79; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 6.30; P=0.014). SVEC, as a continuous variable, was also associated with both the primary end point of stroke or death and admissions for atrial fibrillation. CONCLUSIONS ESVEA in apparently healthy subjects is associated with development of atrial fibrillation and is associated with a poor prognosis in term of death or stroke.